G. Elliott Morris elliottmorris

	library(tidyverse)
	library(survey)

	# mutate weight variable
	dat = read_csv('anes_timeseries_2024_csv_20250430.csv') %>%
	filter(V241012 == 1) %>%# RVs
	mutate(weight = case_when(!is.na(V240103b) ~ V240103b,
	!is.na(V240104b) ~ V240104b,
	!is.na(V240104b) ~ V240104b,
	!is.na(V240103a) ~ V240103a,

	library(tidyverse)
	library(zoo)

	dat = read_csv('~/Desktop/selected_outlays_2025-04-10.csv') %>%
	select(date, spend = `Cumulative year-to-date`)


	dat = tibble(
	date = ymd(as_date(min(dat$date):max(dat$date)))
	) %>%

	library(tidyverse)
	library(janitor)

	dat = read_csv('~/Downloads/Trump issue approval march - Sheet1.csv')

	dat = clean_names(dat)

	dat %>% group_by(category) %>%
	summarise_at(c('approve', 'disapprove', 'net'), mean) %>%
	mutate_if(is.numeric,round_half_up,1) %>%

	library(tidyverse)

	bayes_update_normal = function(
	data_mu,
	data_se,
	prior_mu = 0,
	prior_se = 3){

	if(all(data_mu == 0)){
	return(c(0,0))

	#' Description
	#' This file runs a live election-night forecast based on The Economist's pre-election forecasting model
	#' available at projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president.
	#' It is resampling model based on https://pkremp.github.io/update_prob.html.
	#' This script does not input any real election results! You will have to enter your picks/constraints manually (scroll to the bottom of the script).
	#'
	#' Licence
	#' This software is published by [The Economist](https://www.economist.com) under the [MIT licence](https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT). The data generated by The Economist are available under the [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
	#' The licences include only the data and the software authored by The Economist, and do not cover any Economist content or third-party data or content made available using the software. More information about licensing, syndication and the copyright of Economist content can be fou

	library(tidyverse)
	library(lubridate)
	library(pbapply)

	url<- 'https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ56fySJKLL18Lipu1_i3ID9JE06voJEz2EXm6JW4Vh11zmndyTwejMavuNntzIWLY0RyhA1UsVEen0/pub?gid=0&single=true&output=csv'

	all_polls <- read_csv(url)

	# remove any polls if biden or trump blank
	all_polls <- all_polls %>% filter(!is.na(biden),!is.na(trump))#, include == "TRUE")